30-year fixed mortgage rate forecast in the U.S. 2026 | Statista (2024)

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30-year fixed mortgage rate forecast in the U.S. 2026 | Statista? ›

The 10-year treasury constant maturity

In the long-term, the United States Fed Funds Interest Rate is projected to trend around 4.25 percent in 2025 and 3.25 percent in 2026, according to our econometric models.

The rates start at around 6.67% in June 2023 and gradually decline over the years. By July 2027, the rates have reached 3.11%.

One reason being that as the Federal Reserve begins to cut rates, the bond market is expected to become less volatile, leading to a slight decline in mortgage rates. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate as of Friday is 6.91%. By the final quarter of 2025, Fannie Mae expects that to slide to 6.0%.

The 10-year treasury constant maturity rate in the U.S. is forecast to decline by 0.8 percent by 2026, while the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall by 1.6 percent. From seven percent in the third quarter of 2023, the average 30-year mortgage rate is projected to reach 5.4 percent in 2026.

Last year, the White House projection for bill rates in 2030 was 2.4%. Such a level would be much higher than has been typical since the turn of the century. Three-month bill rates averaged around 1.5% over that period.

The Office for Budget Responsibility now expects Bank of England central interest rates to settle at 4pc by the end of its forecast period in 2028-29, rather than fall to 3pc as it had assumed in March.

Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, even told CNBC that he doesn't think mortgage rates will reach the 3% range again in his lifetime.

If those projections remain and the Fed begins to lower its key rate, mortgage rates will presumably follow suit. Sunbury predicts the Fed will cut rates by between 100 to 125 basis points starting in May or June of 2024. “This would bring the policy rate to 4% to 4.25%,” Sunbury explains.

While McBride had initially expected mortgage rates to fall to 5.75 percent by late 2024, the economic reality means they're likely to hover in the range of 6.25 percent to 6.4 percent by the end of the year.

What is the all time high for 30 year mortgage rate? ›

30 Year Mortgage Rate in the United States averaged 7.73 percent from 1971 until 2024, reaching an all time high of 18.63 percent in October of 1981 and a record low of 2.65 percent in January of 2021.

Will mortgage rates come down in the next 5 years? Lord: “For the rest of 2023, I predict rates for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will average 7.3%, followed by 6.1% in 2024, 5.5% in 2025, 5% in 2026, 4.5% in 2027, and 4.5% in 2028.

As of May 31, 2024, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 7.11%, 20-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.94%, 15-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.29%, and 10-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.22%. Average rates for other loan types include 6.95% for an FHA 30-year fixed mortgage and 7.14% for a jumbo 30-year fixed mortgage.

"CD rates will most likely drop and drop substantially in 2024," says Robert Johnson, professor of finance at Heider College of Business at Creighton University. "The biggest reason is the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year."

The good news: With the U.S. Federal Reserve widely expected to begin cutting its benchmark interest rate in 2024, mortgage rates could drop as well—at least slightly. But that doesn't necessarily mean a return to the pre-pandemic era of more affordable mortgages and home prices.

The top nationwide rate of 5.50% APY is estimated to be the highest savings return in more than 20 years. With the Fed now holding the fed funds rate steady, high-yield savings account yields have also plateaued. But the Fed is expected to start cutting rates in 2024, a move that will push savings yields lower.

The agency expects the interest rate on 10-year Treasury notes to average 1.3 percent over the 2020–2025 period and 2.8 percent over the 2026–2030 period. Beyond 2030, the interest rate on 10-year Treasury notes is projected to rise steadily, reaching 4.8 percent by 2050.