DUNEDIN, Fla. – Blessedly, only a week remains in spring training, lengthened this year by the insertion of the World Baseball Classic. Spring training is always too long, by at least a week and maybe more, but there are tourist dollars to attract and local economies to prop up in Florida and Arizona, so baseball remains the only sport that somehow requires 30 games to prepare for a six-month season.
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But now, the camp of springis almost over, which means it is time for the doyens of the media to do the Pavlovian thing they do each year at this time, which is to attend earnestly to the makeup of the Opening Day Roster.
No matter that the Opening Day Roster is relevant only to opening day, and to the players celebrating their 11th-hour assignments to the last few roster spots. Surprise additions are relatively rare, and for many teams, the roster revolving door startsto spin before the first week of the season has passed.
But the Opening Day Roster is a symbol in a sport steeped in symbols. It is a list on the first page of the first chapter in a delightfully endless cycle of sequels.
It provides the answer to a solemn question. Who made the team?
Blue Jays fans will soon find out. Their team has endured an odd spring training. When camp opened, the Jays faced questions about left field, first base and the bullpen, and with a week to go before opening day in Baltimore, no clear-cut answers have emerged.
This should be a good team again, assuming no significant deviation from the track record of the starting rotation. That is always a big assumption. It is predicated not only on the pitchers doing what they did last year, but also on their continued good health. And if one thing is certain in baseball, it is that pitchers get hurt.
Here, again, arethe questions that remain, with answers that represent guesses more than anything.
Q: Will Devon Travis, coming off knee surgery and a late start in spring training, be ready to play by opening day? More importantly, will he be ready to play every day by opening day?
A: Probably. Maybe. Who can be sure? Travis seems to have recovered well each time he has played in minor- and major-league exhibitions. He has looked solid at the plate and at second base. But he has not played in more than two consecutive games so far. He has a total of six at-bats in big-league games. It will not take long to find out whether his brief spring training has sufficiently prepared him for the daily grind of the regular season.This week should help clarify his status.
Justin Smoak earned a two-year $8.5-million contract extension last year. Photo by John Lott.
Q: Who’s on first?
Justin Smoak is a friendly giant who has been the focal point of two head-scratchers by the new Blue Jays management. Last summer, in the midst of a year in which he batted .223 and struck out in 33 per cent of his at-bats, they gave him a two-year $8.5-million contract extension. And before spring training, general managerRoss Atkins said it would be ideal if Smoak emerged asthe everyday first baseman.
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In 17 spring games, Smoak has slashed .176/.260/.256 and struck out 15 times in 43 at-bats, a small sample size that mirrors his history. He is a superb defensive first baseman. But in free-agent signatory Steve Peace, the Jays also have a capable first baseman who is a much better hitter, especially vs. left-handers. There is logic to making Pearce the everyday first baseman, except for the ramifications of the next question …
Q: Who’s in left field?
The Jays have talked about platooning Melvin Upton Jr. with Ezequiel Carrera. They bat from opposite sides, but each hits left-handers better than right-handers. After the Jays acquired him from San Diego last season, Upton slashed .196/.261/.318 in 57 games and logged a strikeout percentage of 30 per cent. He is better than that, or so it would seem, given that he slashed .256/.304/.439 with the Padres and, for the season, hit 20 homers and stole 27 bases. Carrera is a hot-and-cold singles hitter, but, according to president Mark Shapiro, is a “darling of the analytics world,” which, in the context of Carrera, is a world few ordinary folkshave glimpsed (and presumably never will).
Carrera got to play a lot last year because of injuries to Jose Bautista. He was red-hot in May – .423/.500/.462 in 22 games – before crashing inJune and July – .187/.280/.283 in 54 games. A moderate uptick followed.
Then there is Pearce. Atkins said in December that Pearce, who is coming off elbow surgery, could be the opening-day left-fielder. Because he was on a slow rehab, Pearce has played only one game in left this spring, which offered no test for his arm. By all accounts, he is a better first baseman than outfielder.
The key in this conundrum the Jays’ decision onUpton. His long swing means he will always strike out a lot, but if he produces as he did in San Diego last year, he could solve a big problem. That is a big “if.” Pearce might well find himself sliding between first and left while management waits to see what Upton and Smoak can do.
Actually, they know what Smoak can do and they believe it is worth $8.5-million. They could also eat the million dollars they owe Upton, cut him loose and make a platoon of Pearce-Carrera.
Ezequiel Carrera could split duties in left field with Melvin Upton Jr. and Steve Pearce. Photo by John Lott.
Q: Who lands the last two bullpen spots?
Five relief jobs are set: Roberto Osuna, Jason Grilli, Joe Biagini, Joe Smith and J.P. Howell. In the mix for the other two: Aaron Loup, Ryan Tepera, Mike Bolsingerand Dominic Leone.
Spring training offers minute sample sizes for relievers. But …
- Loup has shown signs of rebounding from a down season. His velocity is up, his command is better and the movement on his pitches is improved.
- Tepera has logged four straight scoreless outings after four rocky ones.
- Bolsinger, a minor-league starter, has a 3.09 ERA and 14 strikeouts in 11 2/3 spring innings. He can pitch multiple innings and is out of options, which could give him an edge.
- Leone was very good for Seattle in 2014, then struggled the past two years. Over 10.2 spring innings he has struck out 14 and posted a 3.38 ERA.
Best bets: Loup and Bolsinger. Tepera might have ashot, but he also has options.
Reminder: As mentioned earlier, these are guesses. There may be a few analytics darlings unaccounted for in this treatise. As always, if management considers two players of roughly equal calibre and one has minor-league options left, the one who is out of options makes the Opening Day Roster.
At least for a while.
